After a few roller-coaster years of rate hikes, bidding wars, and “let’s just wait this out,” a lot of Canadians are quietly asking the same question:
Is 2026 finally the year it makes sense to buy a home?
Based on what we’re seeing from national housing forecasts, Bank of Canada policy, and local trends here in Edmonton, the answer is increasingly: it just might be.
Canadians are slowly getting ready to buy again
A new Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada found that about one in ten Canadians now plans to buy a home in the next 12 months, up from roughly seven percent earlier in 2025. Around half of those potential buyers are first-timers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for better conditions.
In other words, people haven’t given up on homeownership. They’ve just been waiting for the market to calm down, and 2026 is shaping up to be the year many of them finally move.
At the same time, national forecasts from CREA and others point to a rebound in sales activity next year after a softer 2025. Recent updates from CREA suggest home sales could climb by roughly 7–8% in 2026, with average prices rising a few percent after dipping or flattening in 2025.
That’s not a boom. It’s a slow, steady recovery, which is often the best kind of market for serious buyers.
Interest rates: not “cheap", but finally predictable
The Bank of Canada has already cut its policy rate down to about 2.25%, the lowest level since 2022, and signalled that the big rate-cutting phase is likely behind us for now.
Most of the major banks now expect that rate to stay roughly flat through 2026, with some calling for a very modest move up or down but nothing like the shock of 2022–2023.
That kind of stability matters more than people think:
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Buyers can finally plan around a fairly narrow band of future mortgage rates.
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Lenders can sharpen their pencils on approvals.
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Sellers can price homes based on today’s math instead of guessing where rates will be next month.
The Bank of Canada also recently noted that around 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025–2026 will see their payments increase from 2024 levels, even after rate cuts.
What does that mean for you as a buyer?
Some homeowners, especially those who stretched at higher prices, may decide to sell, downsize, or move to more affordable markets like Edmonton. That can translate into more listings and more realistic pricing.
Why Edmonton, and why 2026?
Edmonton has quietly become one of the most balanced, affordable large-city markets in Canada, and the latest forecasts back that up.
According to RE/MAX’s Edmonton housing outlook, the average residential sale price here rose by about 6.3% between 2024 and 2025 (from roughly $432,000 to $459,000), while the number of sales slipped and the total number of listings climbed by more than 8%. Prices are expected to rise a moderate 4% heading into 2026.
Other local reports show:
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The median residential price in Edmonton is up modestly year-over-year but has cooled slightly month-to-month.
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Detached homes are still seeing small annual price gains, but the pace has eased.
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Condo and townhouse prices have inched higher, but remain relatively accessible compared to other major Canadian cities.
The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton and several independent forecasts all use the same key word for 2026: balance. We’re shifting from a tighter, fast-moving market toward conditions where buyers have more choice and a bit more negotiating room.
For South and Southwest Edmonton specifically, neighbourhoods like Windermere, Terwillegar, Riverbend, and Summerside, that balance is crucial. These are high-demand, family-friendly areas with great schools, amenities, and access to the Henday and Whitemud. When rates were higher and inventory tighter, buyers here often had to compromise quickly or sit it out entirely. 2026 is shaping up to be the first year in a while where you can actually be picky.
The “sweet spot” combination for buyers
If you strip away the noise, here’s what 2026 is likely to offer serious buyers in Edmonton:
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More balanced supply and demand. Nationally, expectations are that home sales will increase but not explode, with many markets moving into balanced territory. CREA and CMHC both talk about a “gradual recovery” rather than a surge.
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Moderate price growth instead of runaway bidding wars. Forecasts point to low-single-digit price increases in 2026, including in Alberta, where the market is moving from boom conditions toward more stable growth.
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Stable interest rates. Mortgage rates aren’t going back to pandemic lows, but they’re also not spiralling higher every few months. Stability lets you plan your payments with a lot more confidence.
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Pent-up demand that hasn’t fully hit yet. That one-in-ten stat matters: once enough of those buyers decide “okay, it’s time,” competition will quietly pick up again.
Put all of that together and 2026 starts to look like a sweet spot: prices that are still reasonable by national standards, more inventory to choose from, plus a stable rate environment before the next big wave of demand fully hits.
What this means if you’re buying in South or Southwest Edmonton
If you’re thinking about buying in South or Southwest Edmonton in 2026, whether it’s a move-up detached home in Riverbend, a newer half duplex in Windermere, or a low-maintenance townhouse in Terwillegar, here’s how to approach the year:
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Get your financing dialled in early.
Sit down with a mortgage professional and run realistic scenarios at today’s rates plus a small buffer. Lock in a pre-approval if you’re within a few months of shopping. -
Decide whether you’re buying “value” or “lifestyle.”
In some pockets of South Edmonton, you’ll be paying for location and convenience (schools, river valley access, shorter commute). In others, you’re getting more house or lot size for the dollar. Know which matters more to you before you start touring. -
Use the balance in the market to your advantage.
With more listings and a bit less frenzy, there’s room for conditions, professional inspections, and negotiated repairs or credits, things that were tough to get in the heat of earlier markets. -
Think long term, not just “2026 pricing.”
National forecasts suggest we’re heading into a multi-year recovery phase where sales and prices gradually climb from where they are today. Buying in a solid South/Southwest Edmonton neighbourhood and holding for 7–10 years is still one of the most straightforward wealth-building moves a family can make.
My honest take as an Edmonton agent
Will 2026 magically fix every affordability issue? No.
Some buyers will still be stretched by stress-test rates. Some renewals will hurt. And if trade issues flare up again or the economy slows more than expected, forecasts can change quickly. Nobody has a crystal ball, not the banks, not the economists, and not your friendly neighbourhood REALTOR®.
But when I look at:
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softer prices and more listings than we had during the peak,
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a national shift toward balance rather than chaos,
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stable interest rates instead of a moving target,
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and Edmonton’s unique edge as one of Canada’s most affordable major markets…
…I see 2026 as a year where prepared buyers can quietly make very smart moves in Edmonton and surrounding areas.
Ready to explore your options for 2026?
If you’re even thinking about buying in 2026, now is the time to get organized:
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If you own a home already, we can review your current value and equity position and map out a step-by-step plan for selling and buying in the same market.
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If you’re renting, we can look at what a realistic purchase might look like based on your budget.
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If you’re just curious, we can set up a custom search so you can track homes for sale in the communities you care about most.
You don’t have to commit to anything to start the conversation.
Call or text me directly at 780-221-3088, or visit edmontonrealestate.net to browse homes in South Edmonton, Southwest and other Edmonton areas and to request your personalized 2026 home buying game plan.
Posted by Corey Sylvester on
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